September WTI crude (CLU25) closed unchanged Friday, while September RBOB gasoline (RBU25) gained 0.41%. Prices were mixed as traders weighed geopolitical risks against supply concerns.

Crude found support from doubts over a U.S.-brokered Russia-Ukraine peace plan, a weaker dollar, and a rally in equities. Early losses came after reports that Washington and Moscow are exploring a deal that could lift sanctions on Russian oil, potentially adding supply.

Markets remain sensitive to U.S. tariff threats: President Trump recently warned of new duties on buyers of Russian energy and doubled tariffs on Indian exports to 50% over its crude purchases from Moscow. JPMorgan cautioned that triple-digit tariffs on Russian oil could trigger a supply shock given limited OPEC spare capacity.

Supply sentiment was pressured by OPEC+’s decision to boost output by 547,000 bpd from Sept. 1, part of a gradual reversal of pandemic-era cuts. The IEA forecasts a Q4 2025 surplus equivalent to 1.5% of global demand, though tanker data from Vortexa showed a 15% weekly drop in stationary crude volumes to 79.12 million barrels.

The latest EIA data showed U.S. crude inventories 6.5% below the five-year seasonal average, with production slipping to 13.284 million bpd. Baker Hughes reported a modest rig count increase to 411, just above a multi-year low.