Gold futures positioning data from the Commodity Exchange Inc. shows a continued strengthening of bullish sentiment among large speculative traders, even as commercial participants maintain heavy short exposure.
According to the Commitments of Traders (COT) report for options and futures combined positions as of December 9, 2025, total open interest rose by 19,008 contracts to 683,904, highlighting fresh participation in the market.
Key Positioning Highlights
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Non-commercial (speculative) traders held 252,206 long contracts versus 43,202 short contracts, reflecting a strong net-long stance.
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Commercial traders, typically hedgers, remained heavily short with 375,794 short contracts against 126,092 long contracts.
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Total market positioning stood at 620,620 long contracts versus 661,317 short contracts.
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Non-reportable (small) traders held 63,285 long and 22,587 short contracts.
Weekly Changes Show Rising Momentum
Compared to the previous week:
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Non-commercial long positions increased by 5,564 contracts.
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Commercial short positions rose by 10,448 contracts.
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Overall open interest expansion confirms new money entering the market, not merely position reshuffling.
What Is the Effect on Gold?
The data points to a bullish continuation bias for gold prices:
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Rising speculative long positions signal growing confidence in higher prices.
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Increasing commercial shorts often accompany strong uptrends, as producers hedge at elevated price levels.
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Expanding open interest alongside rising prices suggests trend strength, not exhaustion.
Outlook:
As long as non-commercial traders maintain net-long dominance and open interest continues to grow, gold prices are likely to remain supported on dips, with potential for further upside in the near term. However, elevated positioning also increases sensitivity to macro news such as inflation data, central bank signals, and USD movements.
