Goldman Sachs has released its 2026 Commodities Outlook, and the message from Daan Struyven and his team is clear and conviction-driven:
“Ride the Power Race and Supply Waves.”
The core idea is simple but powerful. The escalating US–China race for AI leadership and geopolitical dominance will turbocharge demand for strategic and precious metals—while a massive wave of new supply overwhelms energy markets.
We saw the early stages of this split in 2025, with gold and metals surging as oil lagged. Goldman believes this divergence isn’t a one-off—it’s a defining trend for 2026.
Goldman’s 5 Big Calls for 2026
Top Trade: Long Gold → $4,900/oz by Dec 2026
Brent Crude: Averages $56/bbl
LNG Supply Wave: US LNG exports +50% by 2030
Copper: Consolidates near $11,400/ton before next AI-driven leg higher
Battery Metals: Lithium & nickel pressured by Chinese oversupply
The Framework: Power Race vs. Supply Waves
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Macro – The Power Race:
The US and China are competing for AI dominance, energy security, and geopolitical leverage. That competition is bullish for gold and strategic metals.
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Micro – Supply Waves:
Massive new capacity—especially in oil, gas, and battery metals—is hitting markets faster than demand can absorb it.
Actionable Takeaways
1. Buy Gold (Goldman’s Favorite Trade)
Gold is Goldman’s “single favorite long commodity.”
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Target: $4,900/oz by end-2026
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Key driver: central banks, expected to buy ~70 tonnes per month in 2026—4x the pre-2022 average.
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Retail positioning is still light: gold ETFs make up just 0.17% of US private portfolios, suggesting plenty of room for new inflows.
Gold isn’t crowded—and that’s exactly why Goldman likes it.
2. Sell Oil
Oil is the clear casualty of the supply wave.
Even if the supply surge peaks in 2026, Goldman argues it doesn’t matter—the surplus is already here. Without aggressive OPEC+ cuts or major geopolitical disruptions (Russia/Iran), rising inventories will keep pressure on prices.
3. Hold Copper (Don’t Get Shaken Out)
Copper has had a huge run, but Goldman expects a pause, not a peak.
AI data centers, electrification, and grid upgrades put a structural floor under copper prices. Any strategic stockpiling by China would only strengthen that floor.
4. Avoid Battery Metals
For lithium and nickel bulls, Goldman’s message is blunt: not yet.
China is aggressively investing in overseas supply (Africa, Indonesia) to secure inputs for the AI and tech race—regardless of price.
5. Natural Gas: Global Glut, US Exception
Globally, LNG supply is set to surge:
That’s bearish for gas prices outside the US. But the US is the key exporter—so LNG exports become demand for US gas, tightening the domestic market.
Goldman’s spread call:
They also flag a critical risk factor: US power demand growth near 3%, with many regions already operating at or below spare capacity—an underappreciated tailwind for US gas.
Bottom Line
Goldman’s 2026 playbook is about owning scarcity and avoiding surplus.
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Long: Gold, copper (on dips), US natural gas
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Short/Avoid: Oil, lithium, nickel
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Theme to watch: AI, power demand, and geopolitical competition reshaping commodity markets
In Goldman’s words—ride the Power Race, but respect the Supply Wave.
Article by -Shahzad Ahmad
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Goldman Sachs’ core commodities theme for 2026?
Goldman frames 2026 around “The Power Race and Supply Waves.” The US–China competition for AI dominance and geopolitical power supports strategic metals, while massive new supply overwhelms energy markets—creating a clear divergence opportunity.
Why is gold Goldman’s top commodity trade?
Goldman calls gold its “single favorite long commodity,” targeting $4,900/oz by December 2026. The key driver is aggressive central bank buying—estimated at 70 tonnes per month, four times the pre-2022 average—while retail positioning via ETFs remains extremely low.
Why is Goldman bearish on oil despite geopolitical risks?
Oil is viewed as a supply casualty, with Brent expected to average $56/bbl and WTI $52/bbl in 2026. Even if the supply wave peaks by then, existing surpluses and inventory builds are expected to cap prices unless OPEC+ delivers deep cuts or major disruptions occur.
What is Goldman’s outlook on copper and industrial metals?
Goldman sees copper consolidating near $11,400/tonne in 2026 after a strong run, not collapsing. They still call it their favorite industrial metal long-term, supported by AI data-center buildouts, electrification, and potential Chinese stockpiling.
Why should investors avoid battery metals like lithium and nickel?
Goldman warns that Chinese-led supply expansion—across Africa and Indonesia—will keep markets oversupplied regardless of price. As a result, lithium prices could fall another 25% by end-2026, making patience essential for would-be bottom-pickers.
