Stocks Gain Support as Odds of Fed Rate Cut Rise

Indices

Published on September 4, 2025

U.S. Market Recap – Wednesday

Indexes: S&P 500 rose +0.51%, Nasdaq 100 gained +0.79%, while Dow Jones slipped -0.05%. Futures also closed higher, led by tech.
Drivers: Markets were lifted by falling Treasury yields and growing expectations of a Fed rate cut this month after weaker job data (JOLTS openings hit a 10-month low). The 10-year yield dropped to 4.21%.
Tech Strength: Alphabet jumped +9% after a court ruling protected its Chrome browser. Apple rose +3% as another ruling allowed it to keep its $20B search deal with Google.
Weak Spots: Energy stocks fell as oil prices slid more than -2%.

Economic Data

July job openings fell to 7.18M vs. 7.38M expected.
Factory orders dropped -1.3%, the second straight decline.
Beige Book showed stagnant growth, weaker consumer spending, and tariff-driven price pressures.
Mortgage applications fell -1.2%; 30-year mortgage rates eased slightly to 6.64%.

Fed Talk

Fed Governor Waller suggested multiple rate cuts may be needed soon to avoid job market stress.
St. Louis Fed’s Musalem called for a “balanced” policy.
Atlanta Fed’s Bostic still expects just one cut this year.
Markets now see a 95% chance of a cut in September, and 53% odds of another in October.

Global Markets & Bonds

Europe’s Stoxx 50 rose +0.64%. China’s Shanghai Composite fell -1.16%. Japan’s Nikkei dropped -0.88%.
U.S. 10-year yields hit a 4-week low at 4.199%. German and UK yields also declined.
Eurozone PPI slowed to +0.2% y/y.

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