Stocks Gain Support as Odds of Fed Rate Cut Rise

U.S. Market Recap – Wednesday

• Indexes: S&P 500 rose +0.51%, Nasdaq 100 gained +0.79%, while Dow Jones slipped -0.05%. Futures also closed higher, led by tech.

• Drivers: Markets were lifted by falling Treasury yields and growing expectations of a Fed rate cut this month after weaker job data (JOLTS openings hit a 10-month low). The 10-year yield dropped to 4.21%.

• Tech Strength: Alphabet jumped +9% after a court ruling protected its Chrome browser. Apple rose +3% as another ruling allowed it to keep its $20B search deal with Google.

• Weak Spots: Energy stocks fell as oil prices slid more than -2%.

Economic Data

• July job openings fell to 7.18M vs. 7.38M expected.

• Factory orders dropped -1.3%, the second straight decline.

• Beige Book showed stagnant growth, weaker consumer spending, and tariff-driven price pressures.

• Mortgage applications fell -1.2%; 30-year mortgage rates eased slightly to 6.64%.

Fed Talk

• Fed Governor Waller suggested multiple rate cuts may be needed soon to avoid job market stress.

• St. Louis Fed’s Musalem called for a “balanced” policy.

• Atlanta Fed’s Bostic still expects just one cut this year.

• Markets now see a 95% chance of a cut in September, and 53% odds of another in October.

Global Markets & Bonds

• Europe’s Stoxx 50 rose +0.64%. China’s Shanghai Composite fell -1.16%. Japan’s Nikkei dropped -0.88%.

• U.S. 10-year yields hit a 4-week low at 4.199%. German and UK yields also declined.

• Eurozone PPI slowed to +0.2% y/y.

Big Stock Movers

• Alphabet (GOOGL): +9% on antitrust ruling win.

• Apple (AAPL): +3% as Google deal remains intact.

• Campbell Soup (CPB): +7% after strong earnings.

• Western Digital (WDC): +4% after Morgan Stanley upgrade.