Gold Replaces Bonds as Market’s Policy Gauge

For decades, Treasuries were seen as a daily referendum on U.S. government policy. But with bond vigilantes losing influence, gold has emerged as the new barometer.

Bullion has surged 38% this year, topping $3,500/oz, while the dollar logged its worst first-half in five decades. August alone saw a nearly 4% gain, as investors reacted to worsening inflation, tariff uncertainty, and political risks around the Federal Reserve.

“Renewed rate-cut bets, Fed independence concerns, and a fragmenting world order are driving safe-haven flows,” said Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank.

Silver has also rallied past $40/oz, up 42% YTD, while central bank gold buying — led by China — hit record levels. Global reserves now hold 27% in gold, the highest in three decades, as foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries sinks.

Gold’s rise signals more than inflation fears — it underscores mounting doubts about the dollar’s durability and America’s financial dominance.