February WTI crude oil (CLG26) closed up $0.25 (+0.42%) on Friday, while February RBOB gasoline (RBG26) rose 0.08%, rebounding from Thursday’s sharp selloff on short covering and renewed geopolitical risk premiums.
Oil prices were supported by escalating unrest in Iran, OPEC’s fourth-largest producer, as the U.S. strengthens its military presence in the Middle East despite easing expectations of an immediate strike. Gains were capped late in the session as the U.S. dollar recovered, pressuring commodities.
Supply risks also emerged after drone attacks near Russia’s Black Sea export infrastructure cut crude loadings sharply, tightening near-term availability. Meanwhile, floating crude storage declined, and U.S. crude inventories remain below the five-year average, offering additional support.
On the demand side, China’s crude imports are set to rise 10% month-on-month to a record 12.2 million bpd, helping offset concerns about a widening global surplus in 2026.
OPEC+ has reaffirmed its decision to pause production increases in Q1 2026, anchoring prices even as the IEA projects a sizeable supply surplus later in the year.
Market view: Near-term price action remains volatile and headline-driven, with geopolitical risks providing support while surplus concerns limit sustained upside.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did WTI crude and gasoline prices rise on Friday?
Prices rebounded on short covering after Thursday’s selloff, supported by geopolitical tensions in Iran and supply risks in Russia, despite a stronger U.S. dollar limiting gains.
How important is Iran to the oil market right now?
ran is OPEC’s fourth-largest producer, pumping over 3 million bpd. Escalating protests raise the risk of production or export disruptions, which would tighten global supply and support prices.
Are supply disruptions offsetting surplus concerns?
Partially. Drone attacks on Russian export infrastructure, declining floating storage, and below-average U.S. crude inventories are supporting prices, even as the IEA forecasts a sizeable global surplus in 2026.
What role is China playing in oil demand?
China is providing support, with December crude imports expected to rise 10% month-on-month to a record 12.2 million bpd, reflecting inventory rebuilding and stronger refinery demand.
What is the near-term outlook for WTI crude?
The market is likely to remain volatile and range-bound, with geopolitical headlines driving upside risks while rising non-OPEC supply and surplus projections cap sustained rallies.
