Oil prices edged higher on Monday after OPEC+ decided to pause production increases in the first quarter of 2026, easing fears of a growing supply glut. However, weak factory activity across Asia limited gains amid concerns about slowing demand.
Brent crude futures rose 24 cents, or 0.37%, to $65.01 a barrel by 0424 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 21 cents, or 0.34%, to $61.19.
OPEC+ announced it would maintain its current output increase of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) through December but will halt additional hikes in January–March 2026 due to seasonal factors.
“The decision reflects acknowledgment of a potential supply surplus early next year,” said Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Research at ING. “The scale of that surplus will depend on how U.S. sanctions disrupt Russian oil flows.”
Helima Croft, Head of Commodities Strategy at RBC Capital, added that Russia remains a major wild card amid U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil and continued Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. A weekend attack hit the Tuapse port on the Black Sea, sparking a fire and damaging a ship.
Both Brent and WTI fell over 2% in October, marking their third consecutive monthly decline and touching five-month lows on October 20 due to glut worries and U.S. tariff-related economic concerns.
A Reuters poll showed analysts expect oil prices to remain steady as rising OPEC+ supply and muted demand balance out geopolitical risks. Forecasts for a market surplus range from 190,000 to 3 million bpd.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude output rose 86,000 bpd in August to a record 13.8 million bpd, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Manufacturing data from Asia—home to the world’s largest oil consumers—remained weak in October, with U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump weighing on export demand.
On Friday, Trump dismissed speculation that Washington might launch military strikes in OPEC member Venezuela, amid reports of expanding U.S. anti-narcotics operations in the region.
