Oil Jumps on Iran Tensions — But Oversupply Fears Cap the Rally

 Geopolitical Risk Back in Focus

U.S. President Donald Trump signaled dissatisfaction with ongoing negotiations with Iran, stating he has not made a final decision but added, “I’d love not to use the military — but sometimes you have to.”

Those comments were enough to trigger fresh buying in crude futures as markets priced in potential supply disruptions from the region.

Middle East tensions often create immediate upside pressure on oil because the region controls a significant portion of global crude exports.

Weekly Closing Prices

• WTI Crude (NYMEX): Settled up 2.8% at $67.02 per barrel

• Brent Crude (ICE): Settled up 2.9% at $72.87 per barrel

The gains reflect geopolitical risk premium rather than a structural shift in supply-demand fundamentals.
 

All eyes now turn to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Sunday. The alliance is widely expected to resume output increases in April, a move that could add additional barrels to an already well-supplied market.

According to Nikos Tzabouras of Tradu:

“Return of Venezuelan crude to an already well-supplied market and expectations of a resumption of OPEC+ output hikes keep glut fears in focus. Supply-demand fundamentals remain stacked against a meaningful recovery.”

The Venezuela Factor

The gradual return of Venezuelan crude exports adds another layer of supply pressure. If global output continues rising while demand growth slows, the market could quickly swing back toward surplus conditions.

This dynamic explains why oil’s rally remains cautious rather than explosive.
 

Oil rallied into the weekend on geopolitical anxiety — but the broader supply-demand picture remains heavy.

If military action is avoided and OPEC+ proceeds with output hikes, traders may see this rally fade. However, any sudden escalation in the Middle East could push prices sharply higher.