Oil Falls as OPEC+ Output Hike and Weak U.S. Data Raise Demand Concerns

Oil prices extended their decline on Monday as OPEC+ confirmed another production increase for September, while signs of economic cooling in the U.S. and rising global trade tensions added further bearish pressure.

OPEC+ Output Boost Continues
The oil-producing alliance, OPEC+, announced a scheduled output hike of 547,000 barrels per day (bpd) for September—matching August’s increase. This marks the sixth consecutive monthly hike, reflecting the group’s ongoing unwind of pandemic-era supply cuts.

While widely anticipated, the increase raised concerns about oversupply risks, particularly as global demand indicators flash potential weakness. Market participants are now assessing whether the rising supply could offset the tightening effects of U.S. sanctions on Russian crude exports.

Economic Signals Turn Bearish
Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which came in softer than expected, added to fears of slowing fuel demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. Further pressure came from weak PMI readings, indicating a contraction in U.S. business activity.

On the geopolitical front, President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcements, targeting over 70 countries, stirred unease over global trade flows and energy demand.

Market Reaction
As of Monday’s Asian session:

• Brent (LCOc1) fell 0.5% to $69.35

• WTI (CLc2) dropped 0.3% to $65.90

• Both benchmarks were down over 1% intraday, building on Friday’s losses.

Despite last week’s temporary support from U.S. threats to sanction Russian oil buyers like China and India, sentiment remains fragile.

Looking Ahead
With supply expected to rise and demand signals weakening, oil markets may face further volatility. Traders will closely watch upcoming economic data and OPEC+ communications for signs of a policy shift if prices remain under pressure.