A new account on Polymarket placed a $40,000 bet that the US will strike Iran by the end of January 14, but no attack occurred, going against market expectations that the probability of a strike on that date is low.
The Pentagon is reportedly considering military options against Iran, with preparations underway for a possible intervention in the coming hours or days. Iran has closed its airspace to all commercial traffic, but no strike took place on the predicted date.
Most bettors on Polymarket expected any strike to happen later rather than immediately. Following the 14th, Polymarket data shows the probability of a strike rising over the next days: January 15 — 9%, January 16 — 16%, January 17 — 26%.
Overall, the market expects some form of military action in the first half of the year, but timing remains uncertain. Market consensus currently assigns a 52% chance of a strike by the end of January and a 67% chance by June 30. An NBC report suggested that an immediate strike was unlikely.
Despite the odds, one trader used a newly created account under the handle “mutualdelta” to place $40,000 on a strike occurring on January 14. The account funded the trade the same day, taking a single position on that specific outcome.
Frequently Asked Questions
What unusual bet was placed on Polymarket?
A new account named “mutualdelta” placed a $40,000 bet that the US would strike Iran by January 14, despite low market expectations for that date.
Did a US strike on Iran happen on January 14?
No military strike occurred on January 14, and the bet went against the market outcome.
Why did the bet attract attention?
Because the account was newly created, funded the same day, and placed one large, single-position bet on a very specific and unlikely outcome.
What does the market now expect about the timing of a strike?
After January 14, probabilities increased:
Jan 15: 9%
Jan 16: 16%
Jan 17: 26%
This shows bettors expect action later, not immediately.
What is the broader market expectation for US action against Iran?
Polymarket assigns a 52% chance of a strike by end of January and 67% chance by June 30, though reports (including NBC) suggest an immediate strike is unlikely.
