Financial markets moved through another data-heavy and volatile week, with central bank signals, inflation trends, global PMI data, and corporate earnings shaping sentiment. Here’s what you need to know:
🇺🇸 Fed Outlook – Kevin Warsh Hearing
Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing delivered a neutral-to-hawkish tone:
• Strong focus on inflation control
• No signals of near-term rate cuts
• Emphasized Fed independence from political pressure
Markets interpreted this as policy continuity with a tighter bias, rather than a major shift.
🇳🇿 New Zealand Inflation
New Zealand CPI rose 0.9% QoQ (3.1% YoY):
• Driven by petrol and energy prices
• Non-tradeables inflation remained stronger
• Declines in travel costs partially offset gains
Energy costs continue to drive headline inflation higher.
🇺🇸 US PMI Data
U.S. PMI showed a modest rebound, but growth remains weak:
• Services sector still under pressure
• Rising costs and supply issues
• Inflation at its highest level since mid-2022
This complicates the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
🇬🇧 UK PMI & Inflation
UK PMI showed improved output in April:
• Growth driven by short-term stockpiling
• War-related supply concerns boosted activity
• Inflation surged due to rising costs and delays
Meanwhile, UK inflation rose:
• CPI: 3.3% YoY
• CPIH: 3.4% YoY
• Services inflation remains elevated
🇩🇪 Germany PMI
Germany slipped back into contraction:
• End of a 10-month growth streak
• Services sector led the decline
• Inflation hit multi-year highs
• Confidence weakened further
🇨🇦 Canada Inflation
Canada CPI rose to 2.4% YoY:
• Driven by energy and gasoline prices
• Inflation slowed when excluding fuel
• Monthly CPI increased 0.9%
Underlying inflation shows signs of easing.
🧠 Tech & Earnings – AI Momentum
Semiconductor demand remains strong:
• Driven by AI, data centers, and supply constraints
• Intel beat expectations with strong outlook
• Tesla margins pressured, but deliveries remained solid
• Focus shifting toward AI and robotics growth
🌍 Geopolitical Risk – Iran
Iran tensions remain a major global risk:
• Ongoing uncertainty around nuclear negotiations
• Strait of Hormuz remains a key flashpoint
• Potential disruption could impact global oil supply
Markets continue to price in a geopolitical risk premium.
