Google has announced a major update to its financial and search products, confirming the integration of real-time prediction market data from two leading platforms: Polymarket and Kalshi. This move is set to bring "crowd-sourced probabilities" for future events directly to millions of users, signaling a significant step toward mainstream acceptance of prediction markets, including those utilizing blockchain technology.
The new feature, which is rolling out to Google Labs users first and is expected to expand globally in the coming weeks (starting with India), will allow users to query open-ended questions about future events directly in the search bar.
Harnessing the "Wisdom of the Crowds"
By integrating data feeds from Polymarket and Kalshi, Google Finance will be able to display:
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Real-Time Probabilities: Users asking questions like "What will GDP growth be in 2025?" or "Who will win the next election?" will see market odds reflecting the likelihood of various scenarios.
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Historical Sentiment: The feature will show how these probabilities have shifted over time, providing a dynamic view of market expectations.
Google is positioning this as a way for users to "harness the wisdom of the crowds," utilizing the collective intelligence of market participants as a new data stream for financial and general research.
A Blend of Regulated and Decentralized Markets
The partnership is notable for bringing together two distinct platforms:
| Platform |
Key Characteristic |
Recent Highlights |
| Kalshi |
CFTC-regulated event exchange (Traditional Finance) |
Raised $300M at a $5B valuation. Focuses on macro data, economic, and policy events. |
| Polymarket |
Blockchain-based, decentralized prediction platform |
Secured a $2B investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), parent of the NYSE, valuing it at $9B. Known for high-volume trading on political and cultural outcomes. |
The inclusion of both platforms—one regulated within the traditional financial system and the other operating on the Polygon blockchain—offers Google users a comprehensive, if varied, view of market sentiment. For the crypto-native Polymarket, the integration provides unprecedented visibility to a mainstream audience.
Part of an AI-Powered Overhaul
The prediction market integration is part of a larger, AI-driven overhaul of Google Finance. Other new features, powered by Google's Gemini models, include:
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Deep Search: An AI-powered tool that generates detailed, cited, long-form analyses for complex financial and economic queries.
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Enhanced Earnings Tools: New features for tracking and summarizing real-time company earnings releases.
This update cements Google's commitment to using Artificial Intelligence to deepen financial insights, with prediction markets serving as a novel, crowd-sourced data point in this new ecosystem.
The move follows a broader industry trend, with companies like Robinhood and MetaMask also recently integrating prediction market capabilities, signaling that event-based forecasting is quickly evolving from a niche product to a recognized financial and information tool.
