Gold May Breach $4,000/oz by 4Q 2025 or Early 2026 — Market Talk

State Street Investment Management’s gold strategy team sees a 75% probability that gold will breach the $4,000/oz mark by late 2025 or early 2026. In its latest commentary, the team highlights several key drivers behind this bullish outlook: the ongoing downtrend in the U.S. dollar, steady inflows into gold-backed ETFs, and persistent stagflation risks weighing on global markets. Additional tailwinds include robust central bank purchases and resilient retail demand from China, both of which continue to provide a strong foundation for prices.

That said, analysts caution that a short-term correction of around 7%-8% is plausible in 4Q 2025, as gold ETF inflows often weaken seasonally in November and December. However, they expect any such dip to be quickly absorbed by renewed buying interest, reinforcing gold’s role as a preferred hedge in uncertain times.

At last check, spot gold was little changed at $3,856.34/oz.