Global markets kick off 2026 with fresh signals from central banks, economic data, and labor-market indicators. Here’s a structured breakdown of the key developments shaping market sentiment: 🇺🇸 FOMC Minutes – December Meeting The Federal Reserve signaled a cautious, data-dependent approach following its latest rate cut.
- Policymakers remain divided on the pace of future easing
- Inflation is still above the Fed’s target
- Softening labor conditions allow for gradual cuts if disinflation continues
Overall, the tone points toward measured easing in 2026, not an aggressive rate-cut cycle. 🏠 U.S. Pending Home Sales Pending home sales rose 3.3% MoM and 2.6% YoY, marking the strongest performance of 2025 and the highest level since early 2023.
- Gains were broad-based across all regions
- Improving affordability is supporting demand
- Lower mortgage rates, faster wage growth, and higher inventory are driving buyer activity
This suggests a gradual recovery in U.S. housing demand. 🇺🇸 U.S. Labor Market – Jobless Claims
- Initial claims fell to 199K, the lowest level in weeks
- Insured unemployment remained steady at 1.2%
- Continuing claims declined
Despite gradual cooling, layoffs remain limited, signaling ongoing labor-market resilience. 🇨🇳 China – PMI Update China’s PMI rose to 49.2 in November, indicating a slower contraction.
- Most sub-indices improved
- Output stabilized at 50.0
- Margin pressures persist as input costs hit an 18-month high while ex-factory prices remain in contraction
This highlights stabilization efforts alongside continued cost challenges.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the December FOMC Minutes signal about U.S. monetary policy in 2026?
The December FOMC Minutes showed that the Federal Reserve is taking a cautious, data-dependent approach after its latest rate cut. Policymakers are divided on the pace of future easing, inflation remains above target, and any additional rate cuts are expected to be gradual rather than aggressive in 2026.
Why are U.S. pending home sales rising at the start of 2026?
U.S. pending home sales increased due to improving affordability conditions. Lower mortgage rates, faster wage growth, and higher housing inventory have supported buyer activity, signaling a gradual recovery in U.S. housing demand across all regions.
What does the latest jobless claims data say about the U.S. labor market?
The latest data shows continued labor-market resilience. Initial jobless claims fell to 199K, the lowest level in weeks, while insured unemployment stayed steady at 1.2%. Although the labor market is gradually cooling, layoffs remain limited.
How is China’s manufacturing sector performing according to the latest PMI data?
China’s PMI rose to 49.2 in November, indicating a slower pace of contraction. Most sub-indices improved and output stabilized at 50.0, showing early signs of stabilization, even as overall manufacturing activity remains under pressure.
What challenges are still affecting China’s economic recovery?
Despite signs of stabilization, China faces ongoing cost pressures. Input costs reached an 18-month high, while ex-factory prices remained in contraction, squeezing margins and highlighting continued challenges for manufacturers.
