Fed’s December Cut Debate Heats Up, Now With More Data

Markets are swinging sharply as Fed officials remain split on whether to cut rates in December.
Doves point to a cooling labor market and rising unemployment (4.4%), arguing a cut is needed.
Hawks warn inflation is still stuck near 3% and caution against easing too early.

Rate-cut expectations collapsed to 39% after Powell said a December move is “not a foregone conclusion,” then jumped back above 70% after New York Fed President John Williams signaled support for easing.

With key economic data missing due to the shutdown and only limited reports left before the Dec. 9–10 meeting, uncertainty remains high.
Most analysts now expect a dovish hold—no cut in December, but signals of easing in 2026.