DHL Projects Strong 2026 Profit Despite Geopolitical Challenges

German logistics giant DHL expects a higher operating profit for 2026, in line with market expectations, despite a volatile global environment. The company forecasts earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) to exceed €6.2 billion ($7.2 billion), up from €6.1 billion last year. Free cash flow, excluding acquisitions, is projected at approximately €3 billion.

These targets align with analysts’ consensus estimates.

“There is still significant geopolitical volatility and uncertainty, as we have seen in the first two months of the year,” CEO Tobias Meyer stated. “Our forecast does not assume any improvement in the global economic environment.”

The logistics sector is facing increasing disruptions in air and sea routes due to intensifying conflicts in the Middle East. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran on Sunday forced major carriers—including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM—to reroute vessels around Africa, extending transit times and increasing costs.

U.S.-based parcel company FedEx announced a temporary suspension of services in five countries in the region earlier this week.

DHL reported a 1.3% drop in fourth-quarter operating profit to €1.83 billion, in line with expectations. The decline was largely due to a 36% fall in earnings from its freight forwarding segment.

European logistics and shipping firms continue to face weaker demand and trade disruptions, including tariffs from the United States. “In air and ocean freight, we see declining rates. In road freight, Europe’s weak economic situation, particularly in Germany, is affecting our results,” Meyer added.