People Are Betting Millions on War, Regime Change and Global Shocks

Across prediction-market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, traders are placing tens of millions of dollars on outcomes tied to real-world geopolitical events — from potential U.S. military actions to leadership changes abroad. investopedia.com

• Over $110 million has been wagered on geopolitically linked event contracts recently, including more than $10.5 million on whether the U.S. will invade Venezuela and nearly $1.4 million on whether Israel will strike Iran by late January. Yahoo Finance

• On Kalshi, markets tracking outcomes such as “who will be the next leader of Venezuela?” have drawn millions in volume, while others are betting on which global leaders might leave office this year. Yahoo Finance

Why people care:
These platforms let users bet directly on geopolitical outcomes — a leap from traditional strategies like buying gold or stocks in response to global risk. Some traders pursue high payouts from long-shot events, and winners on big predictions — such as a massive gain from an early bet on Nicolás Maduro’s ouster — are fueling even more interest. Bloomberg+1

As prediction markets grow and even draw partnerships with major financial news outlets, critics warn about ethics, insider trading, and whether betting on real conflict blurs lines between forecasting and gambling.
Article By- Shahzad Ahmad